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Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 35, No. 4, 474-483 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/0093854807313427

Predicting Recidivism in Probationers With the Youth Level of Service Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI)

Eyitayo Onifade

Michigan State University, onifadee{at}msu.edu

William Davidson

Michigan State University

Christina Campbell

Michigan State University

Garrett Turke

Ingham County Juvenile Court

Jill Malinowski

Ingham County Juvenile Court

Kimberly Turner

Michigan State University

Justice systems depend on risk assessment instruments to identify juveniles who have the greatest likelihood to re-offend. This study was an attempt to validate the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory as a predictor of re-offense for young offenders between the ages of 10 and 16. Although 26% of youth in the sample (n = 328) re-offended, there were significant differences in offense rates among juveniles classified as high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The YLS/CMI also had a high correct classification rate, which was reflected in an AUC of .62. Finally, youth of different risk levels also showed differences in time to re-offense rates. Results indicate further study of the YLS/CMI's validity with girls and minorities is necessary. Furthermore, risk prediction could be improved by inclusion of ecological predictive variables related to delinquency.

Key Words: risk assessment • YLS/CMI • delinquency • recidivism


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